The triangle of polarization, political trust, and political competition: understanding its dynamics in contemporary democracies

UNIVERSITY	Pompeu Fabra University
Center/department/research group	Research and Expertise Centre for Survey Methodology (RECSM) Department of Political and Social Science
Research title	The triangle of polarization, political trust, and political competition: understanding its dynamics in contemporary democracies
Scientific area	Political and Social Science
Related Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)	Goal 16: Promote just, peaceful and inclusive societies
Target(s) to which it contributes	16.3 Promote the rule of law at the national and international levels and ensure equal access to justice for all 16.6 Develop effective, accountable, and transparent institutions at all levels 16.10 Ensure public access to information and protect fundamental freedoms, in accordance with national legislation and international agreements
Further information	https://www.upf.edu/web/survey/news/-/asset_publisher/ofbCGbfUHIIg/content/id/235734645/maximized#.X7aUq2X0mM8 https://www.upf.edu/web/survey

Description of the research

The present proposal is centred on the triangle of interactive relationships between citizens affective political and social polarisation, citizens political distrust in the main institutions and actors of political representation, and the politics of party/elite competition, producing problematic dynamics and consequences for the quality, functioning, and even potential survival of liberal contemporary democracies.

This study will be an innovative and comprehensive investigation of concepts such as political trust, affective polarisation, and the politics of party competition and the dynamics and interactions among them in Spain, Portugal, Italy and two Latin American countries (Chile and Argentina).

For this goal I am compiling new theoretical arguments building up from recent methodological innovations on this topic from leading research in the US, and putting together an auxiliary team of country experts from different disciplines such as political science, public opinion, political psychology, survey methodology, political communication, data engineers and big data experts.

An additional value of the present proposal is the use of a multi-method approach that combines the design and implementation of an original online panel survey, with innovative survey questions together with the application of embedded experiments. Furthermore, I want to match the preceding individual-level data with information collected with a passive tracking application (called a passive meter), which will capture real individual behaviours and exposure to information received via mass electronic and social media. Finally, I will use techniques of computer-aided text analysis (CATA), to conduct an analysis of the sources of information to which respondents have been exposed.

Funding received:

PID2019-106867RB-I00 /AEI/10.13039/501100011033 (2020-2024) MINISTERIO DE CIENCIA E INNOVACIÓN.

AYUDAS FUNDACIÓN BBVA A EQUIPOS DE INVESTIGACIÓN CIENTÍFICA EN ECONOMÍA Y SOCIEDAD DIGITAL 2019.

Relation with the SDG: Contribution of the research to compliance with the SDG, relation with other SDG. Specific targets to which it contributes.

Goal 16: Promote just, peaceful and inclusive societies.

Differences in ideological and issue positions between parties and their followers lie at the very core of democratic political life, being the base for the emergence of cleavages and, in turn, the consolidation of party systems. Beyond a classic focus on these cleavages, scholars have become increasingly interested in the process referred to as affective polarization. Affective polarization is emerging along lines drawn by partisan loyalties as well as other existing or new emerging identities which increasingly divide the world into in-groups and out-groups, these identities are transforming the conflicts in contemporary societies to a single dimension of people increasingly perceiving and describing politics and society in terms of “Us” versus “Them”. This could be responsible for many of the contemporary ills of democratic functioning and a potential cause behind the support for new illiberal parties, which increases the chances of democratic backsliding by some incumbent illiberal government.

Expected impact

Concept development and improving operationalization of political trust and affective polarization

Enhance the general knowledge on political trust, including the factors determining changes in political trust and affective polarization

Providing countermeasure activities to enhance political trust, paying special attention to communication strategies and content

Providing countermeasure activities to enhance political moderation, paying special attention to communication strategies and content

Understanding the effect of illiberal and anti-elite discourses in political trust, with special attention to countries where successful political actors have reached important levels of support.

Understanding the interplay between affective polarization and political trust.

Understanding the interplay between affective polarization and support to illiberal and right-wing extremism and populist parties.

Understanding the effect of certain emotions and personality features have on political trust, especially in the context of illiberal and anti-elitist political discourses.

Improve methodologically the intersection of survey data, experiments and the collection of big data

The development of artificial intelligence and deep reinforcement learning in the analysis of political trust and affective polarization

Contribute to the field of comparative survey methodology via empirical assessments of the most recent developments on line survey data.

The creation of an unique dataset combining different and innovative mixed methods in five countries (three from Southern Europe and 2 from Latin America) that will be available to the scientific and expert communities

Synergies between the academic and private sectors in the development of algorithms and artificial intelligence to create political trust and political moderation.

Synergies and collaboration between data engineers, survey methodologists and practitioners, political scientists and expert in public opinion, and experts in communication.